The best week of the year is upon us, friends! Not just one, but two full days of food, family, and football to enjoy. I’ve written in the past about how Thanksgiving football can get you into some hot water with your fantasy decision-making, so this year I want to share how you can wield its power like a cold-blooded fantasy assassin. OK, maybe I went too far with the hot/cold thing there, but this week does give you a unique opportunity to really manage your team through the week.
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With three early games instead of only one, we’re going to have a lot more information heading into Sunday than usual. You’ll have a good idea where your matchup is heading with so many key fantasy players taking the field Thursday. You can use this information to modify your starting lineup for Sunday and Monday. Given that there are no byes, and you should get another waiver run in between Thursday and Sunday, we might actually have some roster flexibility this weekend.
If you find yourself down big on Friday morning — maybe Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs go nuts while Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley fall short in difficult matchups — you’re going to want to hunt for upside. Start only players who have a chance to hit the fantasy lotto. Safe, floor guys have no place in this scenario. In a Thanksgiving analogy, put that pumpkin pie away and roll out the mint chocolate ice cream cake for dessert (which my aunt is actually bringing for my turkey day celebration). It will make or break the meal (or the matchup) but I have high hopes for that unusual but refreshing note to cap off the day of indulgence.
If you are up big with a solid win probability after Thursday’s games, you should play it safe. Apple pie, mashed potatoes, canned cranberry sauce — it’s your time to shine. Go for guys with a high floor to keep your momentum going. Take no unnecessary risks.
If you’re competitive after the first three games, you’ll want to optimize the mix. Maybe use your higher floor running backs but more volatile receivers or vice versa. If you have receivers your opponent’s QB is throwing to, that’s a good way to stay even or get ahead in a close matchup. Balance is key here: traditional turkey with gravy, Italian sausage stuffing, but throw in some bacon-roasted Brussels sprouts or an arugula salad with corn, dried cranberries and pepitas with a pesto-buttermilk dressing (yes, I make this for Thanksgiving and it is delicious).
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So, here are some ideas to shake up your Sunday-Monday rosters and win your week based on whether you’re in a deep hole, flying high, or white-knuckling it into the weekend. All of these players have spent time on fantasy benches and in starting lineups this season; none are superstar must-start guys. One last thought, if you’re deciding between two seemingly similar options, one playing on Thanksgiving and one later, you might sit the Thursday guy to give yourself some more flexibility depending on how the first round of Week 12 goes.
Go big or go home
Christian Kirk, JAC, WR — Kirk has run the fantasy gamut this season, but is coming off his best game so far. It was his second 12-target game and his second 2-TD game, but the first time those things co-occurred. Is he likely to repeat that in back-to-back games? Not necessarily, but he’s just showed what he’s capable of. Baltimore’s defense has run hot and cold, but through 11 weeks, they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. The Jaguars are at home, and the Ravens are only narrow favorites. Kirk has the high 30-plus fantasy point ceiling we are looking for when playing from behind.
Cam Akers, LAR, RB — I had Akers slotted into this space before the Darrell Henderson cut was announced, for what it’s worth. This is what they call blind faith — I have not seen proof that Akers can win you your matchup in any professional football game he’s played in. He had a nice three-game stretch in 2019 when he piled up yardage on heavy volume and scored a couple of rushing touchdowns, but based on his draft hype, that was barely scratching the surface. I think it says a lot that the Rams held on to him and cut Henderson after the early season drama. With Matthew Stafford dealing with his second concussion in less than three weeks, this struggling offense would be wise to revisit the idea of giving Akers 20-plus carries vs. the Chiefs this weekend. Kansas City gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and ranks fourth in overall fantasy points allowed to opponents.
Latavius Murray, DEN, RB — With Melvin Gordon out of the way, there isn’t much competition for Murray this weekend. We’ve seen opposing backs ravage the Panthers in recent weeks (Joe Mixon’s five touchdowns, a nice combination of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley going for nearly 180 total yards in Week 8, although Baltimore was stalled for most of Week 11 on all fronts). Anyway, I’ve never been a huge Murray fan, but he is sneaky at the goal, has put up multiple touchdown games for several teams in the NFL, and gets this juicy RB matchup with the backfield essentially to himself. He’s also an adept pass-catcher for those in PPR leagues.
Play it safe
Demarcus Robinson, BAL, WR — I’ll be honest, I’m not sure what happened to the Ravens in Week 11, but I hope it’s out of their system. Maybe another week of health for Mark Andrews will get this offense rolling again. There are still a lot of questions at the wide receiver position, but Robinson is emerging as the Mr. Reliable of the bunch. He’s coming off a game in which he caught all nine of the passes thrown his way for 128 yards. Jacksonville’s defense ranks in the Top 10 most generous for fantasy against QB, RB and WR, so the set-up is there for Robinson to put forth another appealing fantasy day, perhaps a 6-90-1 kind of line. Perfect to keep you comfortably ahead of your flailing opponent.
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Geno Smith, SEA, QB — Smith ranks seventh among fantasy QBs this season, with an average of 18 fantasy points per game. He still leads the league in completion percentage, is second in passer rating, tied for eighth in rushing attempts, and has thrown only four interceptions. His overall complete game style makes him an extremely safe QB play against the Raiders in Week 12. Las Vegas is the third-best QB matchup for fantasy, giving him the high floor we’re after, plus some possible upside.
Terry McLaurin, WR; Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS — McLaurin was disappointing in Week 11, but still produced almost 10 PPR fantasy points, which is better than a lot of early-round stars did (e.g. CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown). Gibson was also solid, making a mark in both the run and pass game, as usual. Brian Robinson is not taking over this backfield, but he’s not going away either. That caps Gibson’s ceiling, but the high floor is there for both McLaurin and Gibson in a matchup with the Falcons (second-most overall fantasy points allowed).
Balance it out
Michael Pittman, IND, WR — While the preseason’s high hopes are pretty much out the window, there is still some on-paper possibilities for Pittman to have a true break-out game. The Colts are above average in pass attempts per game and completions per game (seventh in the league). However, they’re in the bottom half in passing yards per game. Matt Ryan does look better following the Sam Ehlinger experiment, and is coming off his best game of the season. Pittman’s target share is high enough (22 percent), as is his share of the team’s air yards (25 percent), and his catch rate is decent. It just hasn’t translated into touchdowns. In fact, Pittman might be the poster-child for TD regression given the average among WRs is one per 18 targets and he has one per 92 targets. He remains a high-floor, high-ceiling player with a tilt toward the upside against the Steelers, who give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA, RB — Wilson has quickly risen to the top of the Dolphins RB depth chart, surpassing Raheem Mostert’s production in each of his first two games with the team. He’s had a rushing and a receiving touchdown already, and is averaging over six yards per carry. The Dolphins are massive home favorites over the Texans this weekend, which sets up a favorable game script for Wilson. In addition, no team is more generous to opposing running backs than Houston.
Juwan Johnson, NO, TE — Johnson has four double-digit fantasy outputs in his past five games. He’s scored in all four of those, which does make him a touchdown-dependent TE. Tell me something new, you say… almost all TEs are touchdown-dependent after the Top 3. His red zone usage does go beyond fluky, though. It’s apparent that Andy Dalton is looking for him there. In fact, Johnson is second to Cole Kmet in red zone fantasy points with four catches on four targets for four touchdowns in the past five games. The Saints have a tough assignment traveling to San Francisco, one of the least fantasy-friendly matchups out there, but Johnson might be a sneaky risk/reward option at tight end this week.
Happy Thanksgiving! I’m thankful for you readers and commenters, and wish us all luck in a critical Week 12. Feel free to share your highest-risk Thanksgiving dishes in the comments below.
(Top photo: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports)
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