ATHENS, Ga. — Carson Beck on Thursday posted a picture of himself in a Georgia uniform at the goal line, looking down, deep in thought. Meaning the quarterback was near the finish line of a decision. Or the finish line of his career. Or he knew we would over-analyze anything he posted, so he was just having fun with it.
Advertisement
For what it’s worth, Beck is practicing with Georgia as it prepares for the Orange Bowl. So are other players mulling their futures, and others have already made their departures. It’s a weird time — people’s minds on next year while still having to finish this year.
Here are some late-week thoughts and observations after talking to many sources and thinking through things.
Beck’s decision
Don’t believe a lot of the dollar numbers you’re hearing around Beck demanding or being offered to stay at Georgia. Is there a financial consideration to this decision? Sure. But crunching the numbers makes it hard to believe there’s an amount that would sway the decision.
The last pick in the first round is projected to get a $6.2 million signing bonus. Neither the collective at Georgia nor (probably) any collective anywhere has that kind of money. The last pick of the second round, meanwhile, is due to get around $1.5 million. Maybe Georgia’s collective could swing that, but that’s still just the signing bonus. There’s also a base salary of a few more million. Plus, the sooner you go pro, the sooner you start your NFL clock to get to your second contract four years later.
This indecision more likely has to do with Beck waiting to hear where he’s projected to go in the NFL Draft if he leaves this year. If that feedback indicates he’d go in the first round without a doubt, he would leave. If it’s maybe the first round, more likely the second round, then the decision is about that. Maybe there’s an NIL number, either through the collective or other endorsements, that would make him feel better about staying. Or maybe he’ll wait to make the number go a little higher. But in the end, this seems a lot more about his NFL stock. And with Jayden Daniels seeming to have moved into the third QB spot behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, it looks like Beck’s best shot is coming back for another year to raise his stock into becoming a definite first-rounder. But he also risks playing badly enough to have it plummet. It’s not an easy call, but at this point, the best bet is he will return to Georgia.
Amarius Mims, right, is likely off to the NFL Draft, but will Ladd McConkey, left, join him? (Brett Davis / USA Today)Other stay-or-go decisions
Nobody has announced their intentions yet, and technically nobody has to until Jan. 15, the hard deadline to declare for the draft. For that reason, some players could wait until after the Orange Bowl.
Advertisement
But others might decide earlier, either for their convenience or the team’s. If Beck were to leave, the team would want to look in the portal for a veteran. That’s why you heard that Georgia checked in with Texas backup Maalik Murphy after he entered the portal Wednesday.
Whether they announce their decision or not, the players most likely to declare are tight end Brock Bowers, right tackle Amarius Mims and cornerback Kamari Lassiter. Others considering a departure include receiver Ladd McConkey, inside linebackers Smael Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson, safety Javon Bullard and guard Tate Ratledge.
This list could go on for a while thanks to the carryover from the COVID-19 extra year of eligibility. The only player on this year’s roster who has no eligibility left is defensive tackle Tramel Walthour. That’s it; that’s the list. So there are too many stay-or-go decisions to list in full.
Two players as of Thursday afternoon have been announced as accepting All-Star Game invites: center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger and nose tackle Zion Logue. Neither is a huge surprise; the former is an NFL prospect, and Logue is a fifth-year senior.
As of publication, Georgia has had 12 scholarship players enter the portal and four walk-ons. Mekhi Mews is the walk-on who played a substantial role this year and is looking to capitalize on that. Among the dozen scholarship players, the biggest name is edge rusher Marvin Jones Jr., a five-star prospect in 2022 who saw a lot of snaps this year.
Still, though, Jones Jr. had only 12 tackles and would have been competing with other top young prospects next season: Damon Wilson, Jalon Walker, Samuel M’Pemba, incoming recruits and veteran Chaz Chambliss.
Georgia, in other words, has yet to lose a guy who stings, as it has at least once in each of the past few years (Adonai Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, Tyrique Stevenson). But that could still be coming. No names will be thrown out willy-nilly. Just assume at some point it might happen.
Advertisement
But Georgia is also poised to add some names.
Receiver is a position the Bulldogs have been targeting. Vanderbilt freshman London Humphreys, the team’s second-leading receiver, could jump in anytime. Miami junior Colbie Young, Ohio State junior Julian Fleming and USC junior Michael Jackson III are other names to watch. (The latter followed me on X, formerly Twitter, the other day. Does it mean anything? I don’t want to be starting something, but it’s just human nature.)
Florida sophomore tailback Trevor Etienne is also known to be a Georgia target, and other veteran running backs are being looked at.
Defensive line and edge rusher are also big areas of need, literally and figuratively. South Carolina’s Xzavier McLeod and Florida’s Princely Umanmielen are two to watch.
Traditional recruiting and the 85 limit
Five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola might not sign with Georgia after all. Not sure if you heard that. Raiola is visiting Nebraska this weekend, and though he’s still officially a Georgia commitment and Georgia coaches visited him at Buford High this week, there hasn’t been more to indicate a flip isn’t happening.
That would leave Georgia at 27 commitments for its signing class. There is no signing limit anymore, but the NCAA scholarship limit of 85 still holds.
One question in this new era is whether NIL money could allow a team to circumvent that. Maybe, between NIL and non-athletic scholarship money, but so much comes with scholarships (room and board, cost of attendance, etc.). It would have to be a lot, and as pointed out above, there isn’t as much NIL money out there as some might believe. Just anecdotally, teams appear to be adhering to 85 as the number to hit, so let’s assume that’s it.
If you count the players in the portal as leaving, as well as Van Pran-Granger and Logue, then Georgia sits at 70. And that is still counting Deyon “Smoke” Bouie, who left the team last summer but — for procedural reasons (too complicated to outline here) — appears to still count toward Georgia’s number.
Advertisement
So if Georgia signs 27 players, it would be at 97, and that’s not counting anyone added to the portal. But you have guys like Bowers, Mims and Lassiter almost certainly leaving. You also have seniors like Kendall Milton, Daijun Edwards, Tykee Smith, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Xavier Truss who don’t seem likely to return. That’s down to 89. Then you have all the NFL decisions and the possibility of unexpected portal departures.
If the 85 number becomes an issue, in other words, it would be a good thing for Georgia because it would mean it’s had some surprise returns.
(Top photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGpqcWhoanxzfJFsZmpqX2aBcLPEqKmgoZFisKK%2B0qilZpqVmLhuvM6rq5qkXaeypL7Uoquippdk